MENA solar wind power transition analysis
The report, Rise of Renewables in the Gulf Region, launched at the World Future Energy Summit, highlights that variable renewable energy capacity across the Middle East and North Africa is expected to increase by roughly ten times by 2040 and continue expanding through to 2060, even as the region maintains its role as a leading oil and gas producer
According to the analysis, renewables will play an increasingly central role in the region’s power system over the coming decades. By 2060, electricity is projected to account for around 35% of total energy demand in MENA, with the majority of this electricity generated from renewable sources. Solar and wind combined are expected to deliver about 85% of electricity generation by that point, with solar contributing approximately 45% and wind close to 40%.
“The rapid rise of renewables in the Gulf, and MENA more broadly, is not replacing hydrocarbons overnight, but it is reshaping the power system,” said Ditlev Engel, Energy Systems CEO at DNV.
“GCC countries are building some of the world’s largest solar and storage projects while still supplying global oil and gas markets. This development is driven mainly by economics. Renewables now provide low-cost electricity, and clean power is becoming necessary for competitive industry and future hydrogen production.”
DNV’s report explains that this growth is being propelled by a combination of expanding renewable supply and rising electricity demand. Utility-scale renewable projects are being rolled out across the region, including mega solar installations, hybrid solar-and-storage plants, and new wind farms. At the same time, electricity demand is increasing from data centres, electric transport, and green hydrogen production. Established industries are also shifting towards low-carbon electricity in response to policy measures such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
A significant inflection point is expected around 2040, when annual increases in renewable electricity generation are forecast to outpace growth in overall electricity demand. This shift is projected to steadily lift the share of renewables within the regional power mix.
Solar energy remains the dominant renewable technology. Installed solar capacity is forecast to rise from 76GW in 2024 to 340GW by 2029, with solar expected to supply nearly 20% of total electricity by the end of the decade. An increasing proportion of these projects will incorporate battery storage to enable continuous power delivery and enhance grid flexibility.
Wind power, while currently less developed, is projected to triple in capacity each decade between 2020 and 2060. Its generation profile complements solar, producing more electricity at night and during specific seasonal periods, particularly when paired with storage solutions. Overall, DNV estimates that combined solar and wind generation in MENA will expand by around fourteen times by 2040, alongside a tenfold increase in installed capacity.
“The Gulf is moving from discussion to deployment,” remarked Jan Zschommler, market area manager for Middle East & Africa, Energy Systems at DNV.
“Utility-scale solar, wind, and storage projects are now being built at a pace that changes the regional power mix. Our modelling shows that renewables growth will exceed demand growth after 2040. That is when the transition in the region’s power mix starts to accelerate.”
Energy storage and system flexibility are identified as critical enablers of this transition. Storage capacity across the region is expected to surge from about 36GWh today to nearly 9,500GWh by 2060, with batteries increasingly taking over the role of thermal plants in providing short-term flexibility. Enhanced regional interconnections will further support grid stability and cross-border electricity trade.
These findings align with insights from DNV’s 2025 Energy Industry Insights survey, which shows that energy executives in the Middle East are the most optimistic globally about the sector’s outlook. Most respondents anticipate revenue and profit growth, citing the rapid expansion of renewables and associated infrastructure as key factors. The survey points to strong investment momentum, growing project pipelines, and confidence in the region’s long-term energy transition.
