Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are East Africa’s economic powerhouses and are enjoying significant economic growth, with GDP forecasted to grow by between 5.2 per cent and 8.5 per cent in 2018, according to Ecobank’s the newly published East Africa section of AfricaFICC
The GDP growth of the countries is supported by ongoing reforms and the improvement in commodity prices which has driven up export revenues.
Much of the region is reliant on agricultural crops and commodities for export earnings, but continued economic optimism looks assured. The combined effects of further export diversification, improvements in infrastructure, industrialisation, major oil discoveries, and the potential for significant growth in commercial services, look set to turbocharge their economies.
East Africa is a well-integrated Anglophone trade hub, but the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could pave the way for the entire African continent to capitalise on its enormous growth potential. Ever-closer economic co-operation and integration will provide the bedrock for the continent’s increased competitiveness globally.
Samuel Adjei, managing director and regional executive of Central, Eastern and Southern African (CESA) countries at Ecobank, said, “The East African nations look set for continued and sustained economic growth, assisted by commodity prices and the prospect of significant oil production. The region is a world leader in disruptive Fintech, illustrated by the resounding success of mobile money and Kenya, together with Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, represent a regional powerhouse for global commercial services.”
Further major research findings on the East Africa region are:
· Kenya, with its diversified commodity exports has started producing crude oil. But in the absence of a pipeline it must all be transported to the coast by truck. Both Kenya and Uganda have proposed rival pipelines, and until a decision is made on which will proceed first, Kenya’s oil production will be constrained.
· Ethiopia is benefitting from strong foreign direct investment in infrastructure and industrial projects. Its coffee and gold exports have been aided by higher commodity prices, although higher oil prices could constrain its economy which is dependent on imports of petroleum products.
· Transport, construction, mining, tourism and commercial services are the driving forces behind Tanzania’s strong economic performance, as it upgrades its infrastructure and industrialisation.
· Uganda has diversified agricultural exports, led by coffee (it is Africa’s largest exporter of Robusta). The country plans to start exporting crude oil in 2019 and its service sector, which accounts for 52% of GDP, continues to expand strongly, supported by an emerging tech innovation sector.
· Rwanda’s agricultural sector is benefitting from improved weather conditions and strengthening commodity prices are bolstering its mining exports. The government’s strong support for innovation is aimed at turning Rwanda into innovators’ preferred ‘Proof of Concept’ country in Africa.
