The countries of sub-Saharan Africa are set to become more important as the global economy realigns in the face of wider geopolitical shifts, a new report suggests
South Africa, as one of the so-called BRICS nations, also stands to prosper.
The report, by Boston Consulting Group, suggests that global trade will show some resilience, and could grow 2.5% annually through to 2034 despite rising fragmentation.
According to the report, nations in the so-called ‘Rest of the world’ category — which includes all of sub-Saharan Africa, with the exception of South Africa — look set to gain overall on the back of strategic neutrality.
“These free agents, however, will become increasingly important in the future, both as markets and suppliers of goods and services,” the report notes.
While there are a wide range of trade scenarios, reflecting current volatility, small non-aligned countries appear to be relatively isolated from any potential negative fallout.
The BRICS+ nations — including South Africa, and countries that joined later, such as Egypt and Ethiopia — will also seek to expand relationships within the Global South.
“BRICS+ countries have been taking steps to collaborate with each other on trade, which they see as a driver of growth,” the report notes. But their approach to trade differs, with some negotiating deals with other groupings and some not.”
BRICS+ nations (excluding China) could see 3% growth with the rest of the world over the period as well as trade growth among themselves, it adds.
“Global trade isn’t retreating, it’s reorganising,” said Marc Gilbert, managing director and senior partner, Global Leader of the Center for Geopolitics, and a co-author of the report.
“Leaders who embed geopolitics in capital and strategic decision-making will be best positioned to navigate the next decade of change to secure resilience as well as growth.”
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Africa well positioned despite current global uncertainties (Image source: Adobe Stock)
