Africa has an opportunity to convert geopolitical tensions and shifting global trade patterns into a catalyst for industrialisation and long-term economic resilience, according to a new Afreximbank report
Leveraging Geopolitics for Trade and Industrialisation in Global Africa examines trade and economic developments across the continent and globally, and outlines strategies for African nations to benefit from supply chain realignments and changing geopolitical dynamics.
“Africa stands at a critical juncture,” said Dr Yemi Kale, group chief economist and managing director of research and trade intelligence at Afreximbank.
“Geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation are reshaping global trade patterns, but they also present a historic opportunity for the continent. By strategically leveraging these shifts, Africa can build a more resilient, competitive and inclusive economic future.”
Despite a challenging global backdrop, the report highlights Africa’s strong recent economic performance.
While global economic growth slowed to 3.4% in 2025 and is projected to ease further to 3.1% in 2026, Africa’s real GDP growth accelerated from 3.4% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, outperforming the global average.
Africa’s merchandise trade also expanded by 6.1% to approximately US$1.5 trillion, while aggregate inflation fell significantly from 21.6% in 2024 to 13.1% in 2025.
According to Afreximbank, these gains reflect improved macroeconomic management, ongoing policy reforms and the role of development finance institutions in supporting economic stability.
However, the report warns that significant structural challenges remain.
Africa’s trade finance gap is estimated at approximately US$74bn in 2025, limiting the continent’s ability to fully capitalise on trade and industrial opportunities.
The situation is compounded by foreign exchange constraints and a continued decline in correspondent banking relationships.
The report also notes that evolving shipping routes and persistent disruptions in global logistics networks are increasing freight costs and extending delivery times, particularly for economies dependent on imported inputs and external markets.
To strengthen resilience, Afreximbank identifies accelerated implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), expansion of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) and reforms to the global financial architecture as key priorities.
The report notes that stronger industrial ecosystems, increased intra-African trade and sustained financial support will be critical if the continent is to transform geopolitical disruption into sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
“It is imperative for the continent to act decisively to strengthen regional value chains, deepen industrial capacity, expand access to trade finance, and accelerate continental integration,” said Kale, adding that Africa “cannot afford to delay.”
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Africa can still thrive amid geopolitical upheaval, says Afreximbank
Africa can still thrive amid global geopolitical upheaval (Image source: Adobe Stock)
