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North Africa currently has an installed capacity of more than 8GW from both solar and onshore wind. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Rystad Energy, a leading global independent research and energy intelligence company, has shown that Europe’s transition to a greener power sector is gaining speed, with North Africa is set to become a key enabler of this process

According to Rystad, 73% of Europe’s electricity will come from clean sources by 2035 and North Africa could potentially deliver up to 24GW of this through subsea interconnectors. Currently, Morocco is the only African country connected to Europe by two high-voltage cables to Spain (of 700MW), with a third planned in the near future. There are also further major projects in the offing, such as the Xlinks UK-Morocco project, which will establish a 11.5GW of intermittent renewable capacity, 22.5GWh of battery energy storage and a 3.6GW subsea interconnection between the two countries. Others are being pursued for alternative countries, principally the GREGY initiative between Greece and Egypt and the ELMED-TUNITA project between Tunisia and Italy.

Rystad suggests that these three initiatives coming online would see interconnector capacity rise to around 7.2GW, with 23GW of renewable capacity needing to be deployed in North Africa to support Europe. Its forecasts includes 13.5GW of solar and 9.5GW of onshore wind – projects that would require more than US$27.5bn in investment but would (when combined with the interconnectors operating at maximum capacity) potentially deliver 55TWh on an annual basis. This would represent 1.6% of Europe’s overall power generation currently.

A map of the interconnections between North Africa and Europe.

"North Africa's renewable energy potential aligns well with Europe's goal of reducing reliance on Russian natural gas,” remarked Nivedh Das Thaikoottathil, senior analyst of renewables & power research at Rystad Energy. “The region’s geographic proximity makes it a natural fit for buyer-seller relationships, leading to large-scale solar and wind projects, along with subsea cables across the Mediterranean and even to the UK. Wind power in Europe peaks during the winter while solar power peaks in the summer, offering a chance to balance power supply fluctuations. This helps diversify energy sources and reduce fossil fuel use in Europe's power sector.”

There are currently more than 350GW of solar and wind projects in various stages of development across North Africa (most in concept phase); a testament to the well-suited environment of the region to renewables (which is already home to some of the largest solar and wind installations globally). According to Rystad, solar panels in North Africa can triple their yield compared to those in Europe due to the intensity of the sun there – photovoltaic power output ranges from 4.8 to 5.6kWh per kilowatt-peak, compared to 3.6 to 4.8kWh per kWp in Europe. North Africa also boasts significant wind potential, with wind speeds averaging between 7 to 10 meters per second.

Challenges ahead

The timely completion of renewable energy projects in North Africa is primarily hindered by supply chain constraints, reports Rystad. With limited local manufacturing capacity, the region must rely heavily on imports to meet its growing solar and wind energy demands. This dependency not only exposes North Africa to supply chain risks and price volatility, but also highlights a significant vulnerability in its energy strategy. Similar constraints are expected in the manufacturing and procurement of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables.

However, the availability of HVDC and extra-high-voltage (EHV) subsea cables will present significant challenges in the coming years. As of 2023, Europe produces more than 50% of these cables, with approximately 9,000 km currently in circulation globally. New manufacturing plants are anticipated to raise this supply to around 16,000 km by 2030. However, projections from Rystad Energy signal that demand will exceed 75,000 km by 2030, driven by the need for HVDC interconnectors and offshore wind export cables. This could create a supply-demand imbalance that necessitates intervention from Asian manufacturers, which will prompt European firms to urgently enhance their production capacity in order to meet demand.

In addition to these supply chain challenges, financing hurdles could further delay project timelines, particularly since many initiatives remain in the early development stages. Collaboration among multiple suppliers and contractors is crucial for completing cable fabrication and installation within the typical two to three-year timeframe. The concurrent development of solar PV and onshore wind projects will also help minimise delays and address issues related to cable integrity and storage costs.

Global hydrogen demand reached 97Mt in 2023, an increase of 2.5% compared to 2022. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), while investment and projects in low-emissions hydrogen are increasing, policies to stimulate demand in key sectors are required to accelerate deployment

These are the findings published in the organisation’s Global Hydrogen Review 2024, an annual publication that tracks production and demand worldwide in a bid to inform energy stakeholders on the status and future prospects of low-emissions hydrogen.

The research shows that a wave of new projects indicates the growing momentum around low-emissions hydrogen despite challenges such as regulatory uncertainties, persistent cost pressures, and a lack of incentives to accelerate demand from potential consumers. In the last 12 months, the number of projects that have reached final investment decision has doubled – this would increase today’s global production of low-emissions hydrogen fivefold by 2030. The total electrolyser capacity has reached final investment decision now stands at 20GW globally.

However, the IEA reports hesitancy from developers due to a lack of clarity on government support before making investments. As a result, most potential projects are still in planning or early-stage development, and some larger projects face delays or cancellations.

“The growth in new projects suggests strong investor interest in developing low-emissions hydrogen production, which could play a critical role in reducing emissions from industrial sectors such as steel, refining and chemicals,” remarked IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “But for these projects to be a success, low-emissions hydrogen producers need buyers. Policymakers and developers must look carefully at the tools for supporting demand creation while also reducing costs and ensuring clear regulations are in place that will support further investment in the sector.”

Hydrogen demand against production

Further key findings from the report include a notable gap between government goals for production and demand. According to the research, production targets set by governments add up to as much as 43mn tonnes per year by 2030, but demand targets only total 11mn tonnes by 2030. While some government policies are already in place to stimulate demand, the progress made in the hydrogen sector so far is not sufficient to meet climate goals.

Moreover, as a nascent sector, low-emissions hydrogen still faces technology and production cost pressures, with electrolysers in particular slipping back on some of their past progress due to higher prices and tight supply chains. A continuation of cost reductions relies on technology development, but also optimising deployment processes and moving to mass manufacturing to achieve economies of scale.
Cost reductions will benefit all projects, but the impact on the competitiveness of individual projects will vary. Industrial hubs – where low-emissions hydrogen could replace the existing large demand for hydrogen that is currently met by production from unabated fossil fuels – remain an important untapped opportunity by governments to stimulate demand, according to the IEA.

Hydrogen potential in emerging markets

Regarding emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), the report notes that such regions (particularly Africa and Latin America) hold significant potential for low-cost, low-emissions hydrogen production.

To unlock this potential, the IEA advises, governments of advanced economies and multilateral development banks should look to provide targeted support such as grants and concessional financing in order to address key challenges that are inhibiting project developers in these countries – most notably, around financing. Developing these projects, the research reports, can help cover domestic needs, reduce import dependencies and potentially enable the export of hydrogen or hydrogen-based products.

The IEA is not the only organisation that has noted the significant opportunities that hydrogen can offer Africa. Click here to discover why Synergy Consulting sees the emerging hydrogen economy as a key element in the sustainable future of southern Africa.

Representatives from Liebherr-Components, Liebherr Mining and BGG. (Image source: Liebherr)

Liebherr has announced that its mining and components product segments will collaborate with Bruno Generators Group (BGG) to investigate low emission power generation through the use of green ammonia as fuel

Having already investigate ammonia as a power source for dual-fuel internal combustion engines, Liebherr will now pool its expertise with BGG, a company that specialises in the design, development and production of power generators, battery energy storage systems and mobile energy solutions.

“We’re thrilled to be working with BGG in this incredibly exciting project. Their innovative mindset and tracked development and delivery of low emission solutions are a perfect match for us as we work towards our zero emissions targets,” remarked Oliver Weiss, executive vice president, R&D, engineering and production, Liebherr-Mining Equipment SAS. “When our combustion engines business unit saw promising results from ammonia as a low and zero emission power source after multiple test bench runs, we were excited to see how we could capitalise on this to provide even more ways our customers can pursue zero emissions.”

Sustainable solutions

Renato Bruno, chief executive officer, BGG, added, “We are very proud of partnering and joining forces with Liebherr Mining in this project. Together, we share a common vision with an uncompromised commitment to sustainability, and we strive to lead the industry in responsible practices.

“This partnership represents an incredible milestone in our pursuit of sustainable solutions for the benefit of our customers in the mining segment. Sharing and blending our respective expertise will further enhance and naturally boost our innovation mindset, accelerating our journey toward a net zero future.”

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