Energy

The solution empowers customers to maximise operational performance and accelerate net-zero goals. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Aspen Technology, a global leader in industrial software, has introduced the AspenTech Microgrid Management System (MMS), a solution enabling asset-intensive organisations to optimise power generation, storage and load management to address power reliability and meet net-zero goals

Based on the company’s AspenTech OSI monarch SCADA platform, the new solution is dedicated to customers with heavy electrical power requirements in refining, chemicals, mining and other asset-intensive industries that manage their own on-site conventional and renewable power generation in orchestration with active load management and energy storage.

“AspenTech’s new microgrid solution reduces energy vulnerability and business risk by bringing innovation to asset-intensive industries based on decades of electric utility control and automation experience gained at more than 400 global utilities,” remarked Sally Jacquemin, vice president of power and utilities at AspenTech. “AspenTech Microgrid Management System brings functionality and flexibility to the power challenge, helping heavy energy users achieve both operational and net-zero objectives.”

Energy management

AspenTech MMS, now a part of AspenTech’s Digital Grid Management suite, is designed to help industrial customers address energy challenges by providing enhanced power reliability with active, real-time management of power generation resources, including renewable energy and storage, improved situational awareness to maximise return on investment and enhanced cybersecurity to protect all critical loads.

The solution also features an industrial AI approach capable of forecasting power consumption and renewable generation up to 35 days in the future, enabling scheduling and optimisation algorithms to maximise the use of generation resources while minimising emissions and electricity costs.

Additional standard AspenTech MMS features include real-time control, trending, alarming and reporting; the ability to optimise renewables with traditional electricity generation and battery storage; forecasting and scheduling capabilities; and a robust user interface wit responsive data historian and restoring capabilities.

More than 5,500GW of new renewable energy capacity is expected to be added between 2024 and 2030. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its Renewables 2024 report which suggests that a massive growth of renewables to 2030 is set to match the entire power capacity of China, the EU, India, and the United States

More than 5,500GW of new renewable energy capacity is expected to be added between 2024 and 2030 – almost three times the increase between 2017 and 2023. China is set to account for almost 60% of this new capacity, making it home to nearly half of the world’s total renewable power capacity by 2030.

Solar leads the way

The IEA report indicates that solar pv alone will lead the renewables charge, accounting for 80% of the growth in global renewable capacity between now and 2030. Largely, this will arrive through the construction of new large solar plants as well as rooftop solar installations by companies and households.

The wind sector, however, stands ready to play its part. The IEA indicates that, despite ongoing challenges, wind is posed for a recovery, with the rate of expansion doubling between 2024 and 2030, compared with the period between 2017 and 2023.

Already, wind and solar pv are the cheapest options to add new electricity generation in almost every country.

Tripling renewables

While this represents a more impressive growth than some predicted, it is still not fully in line with the goal set at COP28 where nearly 200 governments sought to triple the world’s renewable capacity by 2030. The report, instead, forecasts that global capacity will reach 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030.

However, despite this warning, the organisation indicates that the tripling renewable target is still possible if governments take near-term opportunities for action. This includes outlining bold plans in the next round of nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement due next year and bolstering international cooperation. Critically, the latter could help bring down high financing costs in emerging and developing economies that are restraining renewables’ growth in high-potential regions such as Africa.

“Renewables are moving faster than national governments can set targets for,” commented IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “This is mainly driven not just by efforts to lower emissions or boost energy security – it’s increasingly because renewables today offer the cheapest option to add new power plants in almost all countries around the world.

“This report shows that the growth of renewables, especially solar, will transform electricity systems across the globe this decade. Between now and 2030, the world is on course to add more than 5,500GW of renewable power capacity – roughly equal the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India and the United States combined. By 2030, we expect renewables to be meeting half of global electricity demand.”

Moving forward

While renewables are now on course to generate almost half of global electricity by 2030, the IEA emphasised that efforts need to be ramped up to securely integrate variable renewable sources into power systems.
The report also encouraged accelerating the adoption of sustainable biofuels, biogases, hydrogen and e-fuels. Since these fuels remain more expensive than their fossil counterparts, their share in global energy is set to remain below 6% in 2030.

Global solar manufacturing capacity is forecast to surpass 1,100GW by the end of 2024, a trend that is supporting a decline in module prices but also means that many manufacturers are facing financial losses.

According to the report, given the growing international focus on industrial competitiveness, solar pv manufacturing capacity is forecast to triple in both India and the United States by 2030, helping global diversification. However, producing solar panels in the United States costs three times as much as in China, and in India, it is twice as expensive. According to the report, policymakers should consider how to strike a balance between the additional costs and benefits of local manufacturing, weighing key priorities such as job creation and energy security.

African potential

Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the report notes that almost 90GW of new renewable capacity is forecast for the region between 2024 to 2030. This would increase SSA’s current installed capacity by more than 2.5 times and will largely be at the hands of South Africa which is expected to be responsible for 40% of the region’s new capacity.

The majority of new additions in SSA will be through solar pv and wind (accounting for 80%), although hydropower will play a key role in countries such as Ethiopia, Tanzania and Angola. In regards to solar, South Africa’s auction programme for utility-scale renewables will bolster installations, but additional markets are beginning to play a larger role. Nigeria, for example, can expect 7.5GW of new distributed solar pv as the country seeks to phase out fossil fuel subsidies. Most wind additions will also be driven by South Africa’s auction scheme. Outside of the country, the IEA suggests that policy uncertainty and the lack of a long-term plan for wind development means that developments based on several key projects are often backed by national utilities, aid agencies or development banks.

According to the combined national ambitions of sub-Saharan African countries, renewable capacity will more than triple to over 165GW by 2030. While main case additions fall short of this, the accelerated case exceeds it by considering the region’s untapped potential. At the national level, 15 countries are expected to meet or exceed their ambitions for 2030, while 22 will meet or exceed them only in the accelerated case.

It has only been a matter of days since the IEA released its Global Hydrogen Review 2024 assessing growing momentum in low-emissions hydrogen. Click here to learn more about the report. 

North Africa currently has an installed capacity of more than 8GW from both solar and onshore wind. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Rystad Energy, a leading global independent research and energy intelligence company, has shown that Europe’s transition to a greener power sector is gaining speed, with North Africa is set to become a key enabler of this process

According to Rystad, 73% of Europe’s electricity will come from clean sources by 2035 and North Africa could potentially deliver up to 24GW of this through subsea interconnectors. Currently, Morocco is the only African country connected to Europe by two high-voltage cables to Spain (of 700MW), with a third planned in the near future. There are also further major projects in the offing, such as the Xlinks UK-Morocco project, which will establish a 11.5GW of intermittent renewable capacity, 22.5GWh of battery energy storage and a 3.6GW subsea interconnection between the two countries. Others are being pursued for alternative countries, principally the GREGY initiative between Greece and Egypt and the ELMED-TUNITA project between Tunisia and Italy.

Rystad suggests that these three initiatives coming online would see interconnector capacity rise to around 7.2GW, with 23GW of renewable capacity needing to be deployed in North Africa to support Europe. Its forecasts includes 13.5GW of solar and 9.5GW of onshore wind – projects that would require more than US$27.5bn in investment but would (when combined with the interconnectors operating at maximum capacity) potentially deliver 55TWh on an annual basis. This would represent 1.6% of Europe’s overall power generation currently.

"North Africa's renewable energy potential aligns well with Europe's goal of reducing reliance on Russian natural gas,” remarked Nivedh Das Thaikoottathil, senior analyst of renewables & power research at Rystad Energy. “The region’s geographic proximity makes it a natural fit for buyer-seller relationships, leading to large-scale solar and wind projects, along with subsea cables across the Mediterranean and even to the UK. Wind power in Europe peaks during the winter while solar power peaks in the summer, offering a chance to balance power supply fluctuations. This helps diversify energy sources and reduce fossil fuel use in Europe's power sector.”

There are currently more than 350GW of solar and wind projects in various stages of development across North Africa (most in concept phase); a testament to the well-suited environment of the region to renewables (which is already home to some of the largest solar and wind installations globally). According to Rystad, solar panels in North Africa can triple their yield compared to those in Europe due to the intensity of the sun there – photovoltaic power output ranges from 4.8 to 5.6kWh per kilowatt-peak, compared to 3.6 to 4.8kWh per kWp in Europe. North Africa also boasts significant wind potential, with wind speeds averaging between 7 to 10 meters per second.

Challenges ahead

The timely completion of renewable energy projects in North Africa is primarily hindered by supply chain constraints, reports Rystad. With limited local manufacturing capacity, the region must rely heavily on imports to meet its growing solar and wind energy demands. This dependency not only exposes North Africa to supply chain risks and price volatility, but also highlights a significant vulnerability in its energy strategy. Similar constraints are expected in the manufacturing and procurement of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables.

However, the availability of HVDC and extra-high-voltage (EHV) subsea cables will present significant challenges in the coming years. As of 2023, Europe produces more than 50% of these cables, with approximately 9,000 km currently in circulation globally. New manufacturing plants are anticipated to raise this supply to around 16,000 km by 2030. However, projections from Rystad Energy signal that demand will exceed 75,000 km by 2030, driven by the need for HVDC interconnectors and offshore wind export cables. This could create a supply-demand imbalance that necessitates intervention from Asian manufacturers, which will prompt European firms to urgently enhance their production capacity in order to meet demand.

In addition to these supply chain challenges, financing hurdles could further delay project timelines, particularly since many initiatives remain in the early development stages. Collaboration among multiple suppliers and contractors is crucial for completing cable fabrication and installation within the typical two to three-year timeframe. The concurrent development of solar PV and onshore wind projects will also help minimise delays and address issues related to cable integrity and storage costs.

Global hydrogen demand reached 97Mt in 2023, an increase of 2.5% compared to 2022. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), while investment and projects in low-emissions hydrogen are increasing, policies to stimulate demand in key sectors are required to accelerate deployment

These are the findings published in the organisation’s Global Hydrogen Review 2024, an annual publication that tracks production and demand worldwide in a bid to inform energy stakeholders on the status and future prospects of low-emissions hydrogen.

The research shows that a wave of new projects indicates the growing momentum around low-emissions hydrogen despite challenges such as regulatory uncertainties, persistent cost pressures, and a lack of incentives to accelerate demand from potential consumers. In the last 12 months, the number of projects that have reached final investment decision has doubled – this would increase today’s global production of low-emissions hydrogen fivefold by 2030. The total electrolyser capacity has reached final investment decision now stands at 20GW globally.

However, the IEA reports hesitancy from developers due to a lack of clarity on government support before making investments. As a result, most potential projects are still in planning or early-stage development, and some larger projects face delays or cancellations.

“The growth in new projects suggests strong investor interest in developing low-emissions hydrogen production, which could play a critical role in reducing emissions from industrial sectors such as steel, refining and chemicals,” remarked IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “But for these projects to be a success, low-emissions hydrogen producers need buyers. Policymakers and developers must look carefully at the tools for supporting demand creation while also reducing costs and ensuring clear regulations are in place that will support further investment in the sector.”

Hydrogen demand against production

Further key findings from the report include a notable gap between government goals for production and demand. According to the research, production targets set by governments add up to as much as 43mn tonnes per year by 2030, but demand targets only total 11mn tonnes by 2030. While some government policies are already in place to stimulate demand, the progress made in the hydrogen sector so far is not sufficient to meet climate goals.

Moreover, as a nascent sector, low-emissions hydrogen still faces technology and production cost pressures, with electrolysers in particular slipping back on some of their past progress due to higher prices and tight supply chains. A continuation of cost reductions relies on technology development, but also optimising deployment processes and moving to mass manufacturing to achieve economies of scale.
Cost reductions will benefit all projects, but the impact on the competitiveness of individual projects will vary. Industrial hubs – where low-emissions hydrogen could replace the existing large demand for hydrogen that is currently met by production from unabated fossil fuels – remain an important untapped opportunity by governments to stimulate demand, according to the IEA.

Hydrogen potential in emerging markets

Regarding emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), the report notes that such regions (particularly Africa and Latin America) hold significant potential for low-cost, low-emissions hydrogen production.

To unlock this potential, the IEA advises, governments of advanced economies and multilateral development banks should look to provide targeted support such as grants and concessional financing in order to address key challenges that are inhibiting project developers in these countries – most notably, around financing. Developing these projects, the research reports, can help cover domestic needs, reduce import dependencies and potentially enable the export of hydrogen or hydrogen-based products.

The IEA is not the only organisation that has noted the significant opportunities that hydrogen can offer Africa. Click here to discover why Synergy Consulting sees the emerging hydrogen economy as a key element in the sustainable future of southern Africa.