IRENA raises the alarm as world set to miss key climate target

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has released a new report assessing the feasibility of achieving the COP28 target of tripling renewables by 2030

In pursuit of meeting the collective goal of the Paris Agreement to keep global warming well below 2°C global leaders set a target of tripling renewables by 2030 at Cop28 in UAE. Nearly one year on from the conference, IRENA has assessed the progress made, stating that, despite an unprecedented acceleration in renewable energy deployment in 2023, the world will likely fall short of the target.

These findings were published in its newly released ‘Delivering on the UAE Consensus: tracking progress toward tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030’. Produced in partnership with COP28, Cop29, COP30 host Brazil and the Global Renewables Alliance today at Pre-COP, it provides accurate inputs to future COP decisions including COP29 in Baku.

The findings demonstrate that current national plans and targets are set to deliver only half of the required growth in renewable power by 2030. According to the organisation, annual investment in renewable capacity would have to triple, from a record high of US$570bn in 2023 to US$1.5 trillion every year between 2024 and 2030.

Global shortfalls

To meet the global goals, installed renewable capacity would have to grow from 3.9TW today to 11.2TW by 2030, requiring an additional 7.3 TW in less than six years. Yet, current national plans are projected to leave a global collective gap of 3.8TW by 2030, falling short of the goal by 34%. In addition, the annual energy intensity improvement rate must increase from 2% in 2022 to 4% on a yearly base up to 2030.

According to IRENA, these shortfalls highlight the inadequacy of existing policies and plans to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, underscoring the need for urgent policy interventions and massive investment. The third round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement in 2025 must close the gap towards 2030.

“Today, we’re raising the alarm,” Francesco La Camera, IRENA’s director-general. “As the custodian for tracking progress of the UAE Consensus energy goals, we must flag significant gaps. The COP28 goals of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency are key enablers for our global efforts to keep 1.5°C within reach but we risk missing them. The next NDCs must mark a turning point and bring the world back on track.”

The progress report concludes that to deliver the UAE Consensus goals on the ground, significant advances will be required across the key enablers of the energy transition, namely: infrastructure and system operation, policy and regulation, supply chains, skills and capacities, finance, and international collaboration.

Emerging and developing economies continue to face financing gaps that undermine access to capital-intensive energy transition technologies. Renewable power investments in Africa declined by 47% between 2022 and 2023. Sub-Saharan Africa received 40 times less than the world average per capita transition-related investment.